Calculate Expected Wicket Probability (Skill Index)
Source:R/skill_indices.R
calculate_expected_wicket_skill.RdUses agnostic model as baseline with skill-based adjustments. Skills are added DIRECTLY to probability (no weighting in prediction). Weights are only used for distributing updates, not for prediction.
Usage
calculate_expected_wicket_skill(
agnostic_wicket,
batter_wicket_skill,
bowler_wicket_skill,
venue_perm_wicket_skill,
venue_session_wicket_skill,
format = "t20",
gender = "male"
)Arguments
- agnostic_wicket
Numeric. Base wicket probability from agnostic model.
- batter_wicket_skill
Numeric. Batter's wicket skill index (positive = gets out more).
- bowler_wicket_skill
Numeric. Bowler's wicket skill index (positive = takes more wickets).
- venue_perm_wicket_skill
Numeric. Venue permanent wicket skill index.
- venue_session_wicket_skill
Numeric. Venue session wicket skill index.
- format
Character. Match format (unused, kept for API consistency).
- gender
Character. Gender (unused, kept for API consistency).
Details
Formula: expected_wicket = clamp(baseline + batter_wicket_skill + bowler_wicket_skill + venue_perm_wicket_skill + venue_session_wicket_skill, 0.001, 0.50)
NOTE: Wicket skills use OPPOSITE sign convention from run skills. Run skills: positive = good for entity (batter scores more / bowler restricts more) Wicket skills: positive = higher wicket probability for BOTH (bad for batter, good for bowler) This is intentional - each skill represents DIRECT contribution to wicket probability.
Batter wicket skill is positive if they get out MORE often (bad for batter). Bowler wicket skill is positive if they take MORE wickets (good for bowler).